Mapping Out Politics in New Year

With Christmas behind us and the new year nearly upon us, I spent some time this week thinking about what next year will bring: presidential politics.

The first voting will start Thursday and end Nov. 4, when we pick the next president of the red, white and blue.

By Thursday night we should have a better idea who will be the Democrat and Republican nominees for president. Iowa, with a population less than Orange County, will hold its caucuses in living rooms and meeting rooms across the state that day. How Iowans vote will have an enormous impact on the race.

On the Democrat side, which has become a three-way tie in Iowa within the margin of error, according to the average of all polls followed by RealClearPolitics.com, a Hillary Clinton victory would help push back Barack Obama’s surge and could end the John Edwards campaign unless he gets second place. An Obama win bloodies Clinton’s nose but doesn’t cause any real damage unless he wins five days later in New Hampshire.

An Edwards win could change everything. After seven years out in the desert, the Democrats want the White House back and will pick whichever candidate they think can take it back in November. If anything, they are pragmatic.

With Clinton’s very high negatives among many general election voters and Obama’s lack of any real experience, Edwards may get the nod as the only top tier candidate who is smart enough and likable enough to win the White House in November.

First, a full disclosure before we talk about the Republican side. I drank the Kool-Aid for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney more than a year ago after meeting all the top candidates except Fred Thompson. Thompson wasn’t a candidate then and, even with the hard work and help of some of my close friends, is not much of a candidate now. I have given and raised money for Romney and I am completely biased.

On the Republican side you have former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee rocketing to the lead from nowhere to pass Romney by five points in Iowa.

A win by Huckabee would propel his candidacy past his certain-loss in New Hampshire where his southern charm does not wear well. Then into Michigan, where Huckabee is already neck and neck with Romney and on to the Bible-Belt South Carolina, where he is expected to win.

Romney will need every bit of his organizational skills and a perfect execution of his plan to win in Iowa. A second-place finish would not end his campaign if he turns around and beats McCain in New Hampshire, but it would leave a mark.

McCain has to win in New Hampshire to continue. Though loved by many Americans for his service to this country, his maverick style has never been something Republicans have warmed up to.

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is another candidate that I have a lot of good friends working hard to get elected. He has watched his poll numbers drop in every early state caucus or primary where voters have had a chance to see him up close. The campaign continues to say it has a “Big State” campaign and it is ahead in many of the Feb. 5 primaries, where 19 states including California, Colorado, Illinois and New Jersey choose their nominee.

The problem with this strategy is that by Feb. 5 you will have had seven major contests in four weeks. All eyes will be on the winners of the previous contests. A goose egg in every win column, for all intents and purposes, will end Giuliani’s campaign by the time we vote here.

My best guess: Romney will pull off a win in Iowa and New Hampshire (I told you I was biased) on his way to securing the Republican nomination. Republicans want a real executive in the White House.

The Democrats will go with Edwards if he wins Iowa, otherwise it will be Hillary vs. Romney in November. This is going to be a very long year.